Population & Employment Forecasts

ARC has developed a new series of population and employment forecasts for the 21-county region through the year 2050. The forecasts help inform the development of the Atlanta Region’s Plan, a long-range blueprint that details the investments that will be made in the next 30 years to improve the Atlanta region’s quality of life.

Take a deep dive into these forecasts using ARC's Series 17 Forecast Dashboard.

Below are some highlights from the recently released forecast.

Forecast Highlights

ARC forecasts the 21-county Atlanta region will potentially add 1.8 million people by 2050, bringing the region’s total population to 7.9 million. To put that growth in perspective, it's as if all of metropolitan Indianapolis will move to the Atlanta region over the next 30 years.

Between 2020 and 2050, the metro Atlanta region's total population and employment is forecast to increase by 30% and 22% respectively, within the same 30-year period.

Every county will experience growth in total population by 2050, with Fulton expected to add 254,000 residents and continue to be the most populous county in metro Atlanta.

ARC's forecasts also show that 840,000 jobs will be added by 2050, bringing the region's total employment to 4.58 million jobs, including the self-employed. As employment grows, job growth is forecast to be concentrated in the region's core. Cobb, DeKalb, Fulton, and Gwinnett counties will experience much of this job growth.

The region's older adult population is also growing rapidly as people live longer and the Baby Boom generation ages. In 2020, 5% of our region was age 75 and over. By 2050, ARC forecasts the number of residents age 75 and over will grow to 12% of our region, totaling about 926,700 people.

At the same time, the Atlanta region is becoming increasingly racially diverse. ARC forecasts that by 2050, a majority of the population - nearly 62 percent - will be made up of racial and ethnic minority groups.

Series 17 Forecast Data & Maps

Excel spreadsheets and maps detailing the metro Atlanta region

Population Forecast Data (xlsx)
Employment Forecast Data (xlsx)
Map of Forecast Total Population by 2050 (pdf)
Map of Forecast Total Employment by 2050 (pdf)
Map of Forecast Population Density by 2050 (pdf)
Map of Forecast Employment Density by 2050 (pdf)
Map of Forecast Population Change Density by 2050 (pdf)
Map of Forecast Employment Change Density by 2050 (pdf)

Further Resources & Documentation

Additional resources and documents showing ARC's forecasting methodology

REMI

The REMI (Regional Economic Models, Inc.) model is a very widely used regional economic policy analysis model. The model is used by government agencies on the national, state and local level, as well as by private consulting firms, utilities, and universities. REMI is a structural economic forecasting and policy analysis model. It integrates input output, computable general equilibrium, econometric, and economic geography methodologies. The model is dynamic, with forecasts and simulations generated on an annual basis and behavioral responses to wage, price, and other economic factors.

ARC evaluated and implemented REMI from 2007 to 2008. Policy Insight was the specific model used from 2008-2010. TranSight (TS) has been the working model since 2010 and was used for the previous forecast series (Series 15); TS enables direct use of travel model output and is built on a Policy Insight base. In the summer of 2018, ARC used the REMI model to generate an updated set of regional control forecasts. A Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) of local economists reviewed the forecasts and a general agreement on a reasonable forecast was reached later that year. ARC staff then began allocating the regional controls to smaller geography, with PECAS.

REMI Resources

REMI Policy Insight Model Documentation
REMI TranSight Introduction

PECAS for forecasting and landuse modeling

ARC reviewed state-of-the-art land use models in 2007 and selected PECAS (Production Exchange Consumption Allocation System) to develop socioeconomic forecasts and growth scenarios. PECAS' main purpose is to simulate the future location of activities (industries, households and government), and the development of space by developers, for both forecasting and policy analysis. It has been used in the conformity forecasting process since 2015.

The ARC PECAS model includes the two standard modules: the Activity Allocation (AA) module and the Space Development (SD) module. AA follows an aggregate approach and represents how and why industries, government and households choose to locate in different zones or locations in the region. SD follows a microsimulation approach and simulates development at the parcel level, taking into account developers' profit-motivated behavior as well as land and market characteristics. These two modules interact with each other, and both also interact with the Atlanta transport model by providing it with land use data. The transport model, in turn, provides an indication of travel conditions for use in AA.

The main input of Atlanta PECAS model include various parcel level spatial data, REMI economic growth rates, and the local information collected during extensive outreach process consulted with local jurisdictions on the forecasts. We met with planners and economic developers to discuss key areas (and the extent of growth in those areas) during the local government collaboration.

See the links below for more information about PECAS theory and how ARC applied PECAS model to support The Atlanta Region’s Plan and develop the regional growth scenarios.

PECAS Resources

Activity-Based Model (ABM) for Travel Modeling

The Activity-Based model (ABM) is an evolution from the previous 4-step travel model, and has been fully implemented over the past few years. The model addresses both household-level and person-level travel choices including intra-household interactions between household members, as compared to other more simplified Activity-Based Models where all travel choices are modeled at the person level, independently of choices made by other household members within the household. The Activity-Based Model reflects and responds to detailed demographic information (from REMI and from PECAS), including household structure, aging, income changes, and other key attributes.

Visit our Activity-Based Modeling page for more information.

For more information on the Series 17 Forecast, please contact the Research & Analytics Department.